Category Archives: Economic Update

The $A still has more downside, but a lot of the weakness is behind us
By Fenwickefinancial On June 17, 2019

Introduction While some have expressed surprise at the recent resilience in the value of the Australian dollar around the $US0.69-0.70 level despite weak Australian growth and Reserve Bank rate cuts, …

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Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears?
By Fenwickefinancial On May 7, 2019

Introduction Since late last year share markets have rebounded with US shares up 25% to their recent high, global shares up 22% and Australian shares up 17% as last year’s …

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The 2019-20 Australian Budget
By Fenwickefinancial On April 4, 2019

Introduction The 2019-20 Budget had three aims: to cement the Government’s fiscal credentials by delivering the long-awaited return to budget surplus; to provide fiscal stimulus to an ailing economy; and …

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“Millennial socialism” and the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors
By Fenwickefinancial On March 17, 2019

Introduction When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion …

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Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year
By Fenwickefinancial On February 26, 2019

Introduction I first ran through a set of five charts to keep an eye on regarding the global economy last September. Since then share markets plunged into December and have …

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Australian housing downturn Q&A – how bad will it get?
By Fenwickefinancial On February 11, 2019

Introduction The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. …

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2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
By Fenwickefinancial On January 16, 2019

Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified investors – returns were solid (balanced super funds returned around 10%) and volatility was low. So optimism was high going into …

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The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)
By Fenwickefinancial On January 9, 2019

Introduction Three years after it first started raising interest rates in this cycle the Fed has increased rates for the ninth time, raising the Fed Funds rate another 0.25% to …

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The Australian economy in 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates
By Fenwickefinancial On December 13, 2018

Introduction 2019 is likely to be an interesting year for the Australian economy. Some of the big drags of recent years are receding but housing is turning down, uncertainty is …

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Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares
By Fenwickefinancial On December 6, 2018

Introduction While global and Australian shares had a nice bounce from their late October lows – rallying about 5%, partly reversing their 10% or so top to bottom fall, they …

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